Separated only on goals scored in the Eredivisie table, FC Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam clash at the Stadion Galgenwaard on Sunday.
Both teams have had mixed results since the turn of the year, and each of them will be looking for consistency going forward.
Match preview
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Utrecht have finally picked up their first victory of 2021 at the third attempt, as they overcame Heracles Almelo 2-0 last Saturday.
Goals in either half from Sander van de Streek and Adrian Dalmau were enough to hand Rene Hake and his men a much-needed victory.
Saturday's hosts did a league double over their visitors last season, so there will be huge belief in the camp of repeating the feat.
The Domstedelingen have lost the fewest number of games of all the teams outside the top five, but a league-high nine draws have ultimately limited them to the 10th position that they currently occupy.
Sparta played out a frantic 5-3 goal fest against PSV Eindhoven last Saturday, in a game where both defences were abysmal to say the least.
Henk Fraser's men took the lead through Bryan Smeets, before PSV hit back with four unreplied goals, and were cruising to a comfortable victory.
De Kasteelheren pulled two goals back in the second half to set up a nerve-wracking finale, but their fate was ultimately sealed in added time by Donyell Malen.
In the last 10 meetings between Saturday's opponents, Sparta have lost eight, so they clearly have it all to do in order to stop the rot.
FC Utrecht Eredivisie form: DWDDLW
Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie form: WLWLWL
Team News
Sparta's Bart Vriends is still out with a thigh problem, which should see Tom Beugelsdijk continue to fill in for him.
Abdou Harroui missed his side's game against PSV last time out, and he is a major doubt for this one.
Utrecht will be without Eljero Elia and Emil Bergstrom, who are both making steady progress towards returning to action.
Maarten Paes is also unavailable for the home side, but he is also close to featuring again for the first time since last December.
FC Utrecht possible starting lineup:
Oelschlagel; Warmerdam, Janssen, St Jago, Ter Avest; Maher, Van Overeem, Van De Streek; Ramselaar, Dalmau, Kerk
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Meijers, Heylen, Beugelsdijk, Fortes; Auassar, Burger, Smeets; Duarte, Mijnans, Thy
We say: FC Utrecht 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht have enjoyed the better of this fixture in recent years, and they will be going up against a side who are letting in far too many goals at the moment.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for FC Utrecht in this match.
