Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Almeria |
53.88% ( -0.23) | 24.54% ( 0.04) | 21.57% ( 0.19) |
Both teams to score 49.32% ( 0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.93% ( 0.03) | 52.07% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.2% ( 0.03) | 73.79% ( -0.03) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.73% ( -0.08) | 19.26% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.01% ( -0.13) | 50.98% ( 0.13) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.09% ( 0.21) | 38.91% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.36% ( 0.2) | 75.63% ( -0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Almeria |
1-0 @ 12.34% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 2.95% Total : 53.88% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.54% | 0-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.46% Total : 21.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |