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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | RB Leipzig |
44.5% ( -0.09) | 21.98% ( 0.01) | 33.51% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 68.38% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.47% ( -0.05) | 31.53% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.99% ( -0.06) | 53.01% ( 0.06) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.04% ( -0.06) | 14.96% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.62% ( -0.1) | 43.37% ( 0.09) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.41% ( 0.01) | 19.59% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.48% ( 0.02) | 51.52% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | RB Leipzig |
2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.57% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.15% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.33% Total : 44.5% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) Other @ 0.53% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.82% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.31% Total : 33.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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