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Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Bayern logo

Dortmund
0 - 4
Bayern


Hummels (61'), Ryerson (74'), Sabitzer (76')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Upamecano (4'), Kane (9', 72', 90+3')
Sane (22'), Tuchel (42'), Laimer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Saarbrucken 2-1 Bayern
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich

At least four goals have been scored in each of the last eight meetings between Dortmund and Bayern, and another entertaining end-to-end contest could be on the cards on Saturday. Dortmund will look to take advantage of Bayern's midweek wobble, but we believe that the perennial Bundesliga champions will bounce back to claim all three points, especially is Kane continues his fine form in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.47%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
35.2% (1.026 1.03) 22.87% (0.483 0.48) 41.93% (-1.512 -1.51)
Both teams to score 65.46% (-1.578 -1.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.46% (-2.173 -2.17)35.54% (2.169 2.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.41% (-2.445 -2.45)57.59% (2.442 2.44)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.4% (-0.48399999999999 -0.48)20.6% (0.481 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.85% (-0.769 -0.77)53.14% (0.76600000000001 0.77)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.45% (-1.478 -1.48)17.55% (1.474 1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.91% (-2.633 -2.63)48.08% (2.628 2.63)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 35.2%
    Bayern Munich 41.93%
    Draw 22.87%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 7.85% (0.251 0.25)
1-0 @ 5.71% (0.526 0.53)
2-0 @ 4.51% (0.353 0.35)
3-1 @ 4.14% (0.073 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.6% (-0.115 -0.12)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.154 0.15)
4-1 @ 1.63% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-0 @ 0.94% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 35.2%
1-1 @ 9.94% (0.459 0.46)
2-2 @ 6.83% (-0.115 -0.11)
0-0 @ 3.62% (0.381 0.38)
3-3 @ 2.09% (-0.175 -0.18)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.87%
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 6.29% (0.379 0.38)
0-2 @ 5.47% (0.071 0.07)
1-3 @ 5.02% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-3 @ 3.96% (-0.27 -0.27)
0-3 @ 3.18% (-0.117 -0.12)
1-4 @ 2.18% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-4 @ 1.72% (-0.21 -0.21)
0-4 @ 1.38% (-0.123 -0.12)
3-4 @ 0.91% (-0.126 -0.13)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 41.93%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Bayern

Borussia Dortmund
19.1%
Draw
7.4%
Bayern Munich
73.4%
94
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 26
Bayern
4-2
Dortmund
Kobel (13' og.), Muller (18', 23'), Coman (50')
Can (72' pen.), Malen (90')
Oct 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 9
Dortmund
2-2
Bayern
Moukoko (74'), Modeste (90+5')
Goretzka (33'), Sane (53')
Apr 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 31
Bayern
3-1
Dortmund
Gnabry (15'), Lewandowski (34'), Musiala (83')
Nagelsmann (87')
Can (52' pen.)
Can (40'), Rose (41')
Dec 4, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 14
Dortmund
2-3
Bayern
Brandt (5'), Braut Haaland (48')
Can (51'), Rose (55'), Rose (78'), Bellingham (86')
Lewandowski (9', 77'), Coman (44')
Lewandowski (88'), Upamecano (90+5')
Aug 17, 2021 7.30pm
Final
Dortmund
1-3
Bayern
Reus (64')
Reus (25'), Dahoud (32')
Lewandowski (41', 74'), Muller (50')
Sule (23'), Sane (83'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen33276087236487
2Bayern MunichBayern33233792415172
3Stuttgart33224774393570
4RB Leipzig33197775373864
5Borussia DortmundDortmund33179764432160
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt33111394948146
7Hoffenheim33127146264-243
8Freiburg33119134456-1242
9Heidenheim33912124654-839
10Augsburg33109144958-939
11Werder Bremen33109144453-939
12Wolfsburg33107164053-1337
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach33713135663-734
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum33712144170-2933
15Mainz 05Mainz33614133650-1432
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin3386193157-2630
17FC Koln33512162756-2927
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3338223082-5217


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