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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Mainz 05 |
47.68% ( 1.49) | 22.05% ( 0.11) | 30.26% ( -1.6) |
Both teams to score 66.4% ( -1.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.56% ( -1.4) | 33.44% ( 1.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.77% ( -1.61) | 55.22% ( 1.61) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.42% ( -0.02) | 14.58% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.35% ( -0.03) | 42.65% ( 0.02) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.73% ( -1.57) | 22.26% ( 1.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.29% ( -2.42) | 55.7% ( 2.42) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43) 3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.48% Total : 47.68% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.23) 3-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.17) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.3% Total : 30.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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