Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 9.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.1%) and 0-3 (10.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.91%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
9.65% ( -0.01) | 16.63% ( 0.15) | 73.72% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 45.99% ( -0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.67% ( -0.77) | 41.33% ( 0.77) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.27% ( -0.78) | 63.73% ( 0.78) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.94% ( -0.54) | 49.06% ( 0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16% ( -0.38) | 83.99% ( 0.38) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.29% ( -0.23) | 9.71% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.65% ( -0.54) | 32.35% ( 0.54) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 9.65% | 1-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.67% Total : 16.63% | 0-2 @ 12.95% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.27) 0-3 @ 10.07% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.17% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 5.87% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.09) 0-5 @ 2.74% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.95% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) 0-6 @ 1.07% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.35% Total : 73.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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