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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
53.61% ( 0.54) | 22.43% ( -0.19) | 23.96% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 59.17% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.53% ( 0.54) | 40.47% ( -0.54) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.15% ( 0.55) | 62.85% ( -0.55) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.88% ( 0.37) | 15.12% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.32% ( 0.69) | 43.68% ( -0.69) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.71% ( 0.02) | 30.29% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.53% ( 0.02) | 66.47% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.97% Total : 53.61% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.43% | 1-2 @ 6.17% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 23.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |