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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.97%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.13%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
49.97% ( -0.39) | 20.53% ( 0.12) | 29.49% ( 0.27) |
Both teams to score 71.77% ( -0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.7% ( -0.39) | 26.3% ( 0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
53.4% ( -0.5) | 46.6% ( 0.5) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.71% ( -0.24) | 11.29% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.08% ( -0.53) | 35.92% ( 0.53) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.9% ( -0.06) | 19.1% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.28% ( -0.09) | 50.72% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.22% Total : 49.97% | 1-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.53% | 1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.88% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.61% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.21% Total : 29.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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