Koln's recent home record against Dortmund bodes well for Saturday's contest, but BVB will still be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top.
Without the presence of injured duo Selke and Waldschmidt – who have scored seven of Koln's 11 Bundesliga goals this season – the hosts may struggle to pose a threat in the final third against a Dortmund outfit, who have a plethora of attacking options at their disposal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.57%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
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