These encounters have traditionally been high-scoring affairs with five or more goals in three of the last four competitive meetings between the two, and given the defensive struggles of each, we might be in for another goal fest this weekend.
LAFC have not played up to their potential in recent outings, but the Galaxy have consistently dug themselves a deficit, and it will be a lot harder to overcome that against one of the top defensive units in MLS this season.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 15.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.69%) and 3-1 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a Los Angeles Galaxy win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
1.04) 
-0.46) 
