Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
38.53% ( 0.32) | 27.47% ( -0.13) | 34% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 49.25% ( 0.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.63% ( 0.48) | 56.37% ( -0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.61% ( 0.39) | 77.39% ( -0.39) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.59% ( 0.42) | 28.41% ( -0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.83% ( 0.52) | 64.16% ( -0.53) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.8% ( 0.12) | 31.2% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.45% ( 0.14) | 67.54% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.8% Total : 38.52% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |