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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.84%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitesse | Draw | NEC |
36.85% ( 0.03) | 23.59% ( 0.01) | 39.56% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 63% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.14% ( -0.05) | 38.86% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.83% ( -0.05) | 61.17% ( 0.05) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.73% ( -0.01) | 21.27% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.8% ( -0.01) | 54.19% ( 0.01) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.03% ( -0.04) | 19.97% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.85% ( -0.06) | 52.14% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Vitesse | Draw | NEC |
2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 36.85% | 1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.6% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.58% | 1-2 @ 8.53% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.51% 1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.85% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 39.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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