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Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Roma logo

AC Milan
3 - 1
Roma

Adli (11'), Giroud (56'), Hernandez (84')
Kjaer (71'), Gabbia (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Paredes (69' pen.)
Mancini (43'), Cristante (56'), Huijsen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Roma
Wednesday, January 10 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Roma

Milan could complete the double over Roma in Serie A's Sunday night kickoff, as their squad has stood up to its latest raft of absences much better than their opponents, who are also depleted and are generally less effective outside of Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawRoma
49.19% (-0.052 -0.05) 25.05% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 25.76% (0.041 0.04)
Both teams to score 52.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.69% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)50.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)72.25% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.53% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)20.47% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.06% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)52.93% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.88% (0.021000000000001 0.02)34.11% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.19% (0.023999999999997 0.02)70.8% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 49.19%
    Roma 25.76%
    Draw 25.05%
AC MilanDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.07%
2-1 @ 9.45% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 8.79% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 49.19%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.51% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.41% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.04% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.3% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 25.76%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Roma

AC Milan
69.8%
Draw
20.9%
Roma
9.3%
86
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')
Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')
Apr 29, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 32
Roma
1-1
AC Milan
Abraham (90+4')
Saelemaekers (90+7')
Jan 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
AC Milan
2-2
Roma
Kalulu (30'), Pobega (77')
Ibanez (87'), Abraham (90+3')
Jan 6, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 20
AC Milan
3-1
Roma
Giroud (8' pen.), Messias (17'), Leao (81')
Hernandez (44'), Krunic (56')
Abraham (40')
Abraham (7'), Zaniolo (18'), Karsdorp (44'), Mancini (84')
Karsdorp (74'), Mancini (90+3')
Oct 31, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (7'), Karsdorp (24'), Mancini (49'), Veretout (90+7')
Ibrahimovic (26'), Kessie (57' pen.)
Ibrahimovic (27'), Hernandez (41'), Tomori (65'), Calabria (67'), Giroud (77'), Kessie (81')
Hernandez (66')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan36295286196792
2AC Milan36228672432974
3Bologna361813551272467
4Juventus361813549282167
5Atalanta BCAtalanta351961065392663
6Roma361791063441960
7Lazio361851347371059
8Fiorentina351581253401353
9Napoli361312115346751
10Torino361214103332150
11Genoa361113124344-146
12Monza361112133948-945
13Lecce36813153252-2037
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona36810183448-1434
15Udinese36518133552-1733
16CagliariCagliari36712173865-2733
17FrosinoneFrosinone36711184368-2532
18Empoli3688202652-2632
19SassuoloSassuolo3678214272-3029
RSalernitana36210242876-4816


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