Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Maritimo |
43.76% ( -0.72) | 27.9% ( 0.02) | 28.34% ( 0.69) |
Both teams to score 46% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.49% ( 0.24) | 59.51% ( -0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.14% ( 0.18) | 79.86% ( -0.18) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.98% ( -0.26) | 27.01% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.63% ( -0.34) | 62.37% ( 0.34) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.02% ( 0.69) | 36.98% ( -0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.23% ( 0.68) | 73.77% ( -0.69) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 13.07% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 8.56% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.76% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.89% | 0-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.8% Total : 28.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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