Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 52.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Maritimo |
52.27% ( 0.04) | 25.5% ( -0.01) | 22.24% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 47.4% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.96% ( 0.03) | 55.04% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.7% ( 0.02) | 76.3% ( -0.02) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.91% ( 0.03) | 21.09% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.09% ( 0.04) | 53.91% ( -0.04) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.07% ( -0.01) | 39.93% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.41% ( -0.01) | 76.59% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 13.1% 2-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.86% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 52.26% | 1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.3% Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.52% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.55% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.32% 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 1.35% Total : 22.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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