Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11
Nov 12, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Benfica2 - 1Sporting Lisbon
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Real Sociedad 3-1 Benfica
Wednesday, November 8 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Wednesday, November 8 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Rakow
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League
We said: Benfica 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Benfica will have the opportunity to head into the international break in first place in the Primeira Liga with a win in this match; however, that will mean they need to hand Sporting their first league defeat of the season. The hosts will also have to contend with the short turnaround time, having travelled to Spain in midweek, while also dealing with a fairly lengthy injury list that features a few key players. Based on those reasons, the visitors may just have a slight advantage despite playing on enemy territory, and we feel they can pull off a narrow victory in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
36.01% ( -1.15) | 24.31% ( 0.14) | 39.67% ( 1.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.17% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
