Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.62%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.73%) and 1-0 (11.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
78.62% ( -0.1) | 14.45% ( 0.05) | 6.93% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 41.05% ( 0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.21% ( -0) | 40.79% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.82% ( -0) | 63.18% ( 0) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.58% ( -0.02) | 8.42% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.74% ( -0.06) | 29.26% ( 0.05) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
44.82% ( 0.14) | 55.18% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.01% ( 0.09) | 87.99% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
2-0 @ 14.22% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 11.49% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 7.26% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.32% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.59% Total : 78.6% | 1-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.45% Total : 14.45% | 0-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.14% Total : 6.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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