Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
31.87% ( 0.03) | 27.92% ( 0.09) | 40.21% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 47.44% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.58% ( -0.33) | 58.42% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.98% ( -0.26) | 79.02% ( 0.26) |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.29% ( -0.15) | 33.71% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.63% ( -0.16) | 70.37% ( 0.16) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.56% ( -0.23) | 28.43% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.81% ( -0.29) | 64.19% ( 0.28) |
Score Analysis |
Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.87% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.91% | 0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.24% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.74% Total : 40.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |