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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 55.68%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 22.3% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
Result | ||
Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
55.68% ( 0.66) | 22.02% ( -0.31) | 22.3% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 58.42% ( 0.57) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.52% ( 0.98) | 40.48% ( -0.97) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.14% ( 0.99) | 62.86% ( -0.99) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.56% ( 0.55) | 14.44% ( -0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.61% ( 1.05) | 42.39% ( -1.05) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.28% ( 0.23) | 31.72% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.86% ( 0.26) | 68.14% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.12) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.13% Total : 55.68% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.01% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.62% Total : 22.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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