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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup | Group Stage
Nov 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
 
Senegal national football team

Ecuador
1 - 2
Senegal

Caicedo (67')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sarr (44' pen.), Koulibaly (70')
Gueye (66')

The Match

Match Report

Kalidou Koulibaly clinches a vital win for Senegal in their World Cup 2022 winner-takes-all encounter with Ecuador.

Team News

Enner Valencia shakes off a knee issue to represent Ecuador against Senegal in their pivotal Group A fixture at the World Cup.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup clash between Ecuador and Senegal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Senegal could line up for Tuesday's World Cup clash with Ecuador at the Khalifa Interational Stadium

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup
Last Game: Netherlands 1-1 Ecuador
Friday, November 25 at 4pm in World Cup

Senegal

All competitions
World Cup
Last Game: Qatar 1-3 Senegal
Friday, November 25 at 1pm in World Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 1-0 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawSenegal
32.13% (0.053999999999995 0.05) 28.5% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 39.37% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 45.86% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.58% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)60.42% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.44% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)80.55% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.41% (0.024000000000001 0.02)34.59% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.69% (0.027000000000001 0.03)71.31% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Senegal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.11% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)29.89% (0.052 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.01% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)65.99% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 32.12%
    Senegal 39.37%
    Draw 28.48%
EcuadorDrawSenegal
1-0 @ 10.97% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.04% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.83% (0.014 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.49% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 2.06% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.5% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 32.12%
1-1 @ 13.25%
0-0 @ 10.33% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.25% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 28.48%
0-1 @ 12.48% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.54% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.22% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.03% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 0.97% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 0.92% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 39.37%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Senegal

Ecuador
46.3%
Draw
25.6%
Senegal
28.2%
1260
Build-up
Ecuador forward Enner Valencia celebrates scoring against Qatar at the World Cup on November 20, 2022.
World Cup 2022: Ecuador vs. Senegal head-to-head record
Ahead of Tuesday's World Cup clash between Ecuador and Senegal, Sports Mole looks at the head-to-head record between the two sides.
Nov 28, 21:47
 Ecuador players huddle before the match on November 12, 2022
Ecuador vs. Senegal: How do both squads compare ahead of World Cup clash?
Ahead of Tuesday's World Cup meeting between Ecuador and Senegal, Sports Mole looks at how both squads compare, including their most valuable and top-scoring players.
Nov 28, 17:04
 Ecuador celebrate their equaliser against Netherlands at the World Cup on November 25, 2022.
Ecuador, Senegal looking to end World Cup streaks
Ecuador and Senegal will each be looking to end streaks at the World Cup when they square off at the Khalifa International Stadium on Tuesday.
Nov 28, 16:47
 Senegal coach Aliou Cisse on January 30, 2022
World Cup 2022: Reasons for Senegal to be confident of beating Ecuador
Here, Sports Mole look at some reasons for Senegal to be confident of picking up a win against Ecuador and securing their place in the last 16 of the World Cup.
Nov 28, 14:49
 Ecuador's Enner Valencia celebrates scoring their second goal on November 20, 2022
World Cup 2022: Reasons for Ecuador to be confident of beating Senegal
Ahead of this winner-takes-all clash, Sports Mole looks at some reasons for Ecuador to be confident of beating Senegal and reaching the knockout stages.
Nov 28, 13:11
 Senegal forward Famara Diedhiou celebrates scoring against Qatar in their World Cup game on November 25, 2022.
How Senegal could line up against Ecuador
Sports Mole looks at how Senegal could line up for Tuesday's World Cup clash with Ecuador at the Khalifa Interational Stadium
Nov 27, 23:49
 Ecuador celebrate their equaliser against Netherlands at the World Cup on November 25, 2022.
How Ecuador could line up against Senegal
Sports Mole looks at how Ecuador could line up for Tuesday's World Cup clash with Senegal at the Khalifa International Stadium.
Nov 27, 23:45
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