Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Southampton | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.29% ( 0.08) | 26.1% ( -0.01) | 33.62% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 53.51% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.07% ( 0.03) | 50.92% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.2% ( 0.02) | 72.8% ( -0.03) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.09% ( 0.05) | 24.91% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.47% ( 0.07) | 59.53% ( -0.07) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.25% ( -0.03) | 28.74% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -0.04) | 64.58% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Southampton | Draw | Aston Villa |
1-0 @ 9.95% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 40.29% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.09% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 33.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 37 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 93 | 33 | 60 | 88 |
2 | Arsenal | 37 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 28 | 61 | 86 |
3 | Liverpool | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 84 | 41 | 43 | 79 |
4 | Aston Villa | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 56 | 20 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 61 | 10 | 63 |
6 | Chelsea | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 75 | 62 | 13 | 60 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 37 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 81 | 60 | 21 | 57 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 37 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 57 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 60 | -5 | 48 |
11 | Bournemouth | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 48 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 46 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 46 |
14 | Fulham | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 44 |
15 | Everton | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 50 | 81 | -31 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 76 | -36 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 35 | 101 | -66 | 16 |
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