Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
Result | ||
St Louis City | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
39.57% ( -0.55) | 24.78% ( -0.11) | 35.65% ( 0.67) |
Both teams to score 58.45% ( 0.52) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.28% ( 0.63) | 44.72% ( -0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.92% ( 0.61) | 67.08% ( -0.6) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.49% ( 0) | 22.51% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.93% ( 0) | 56.08% ( -0) |
Houston Dynamo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.43% ( 0.67) | 24.57% ( -0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.94% ( 0.94) | 59.06% ( -0.93) |
Score Analysis |
St Louis City | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 39.57% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.77% | 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.8% Total : 35.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 25 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Toronto | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 20 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 19 |
11 | Orlando City | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
13 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 10 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 33 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 30 |
3 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 28 |
4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
8 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Dallas | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |