Euro Champ Qualifying | Final
Mar 26, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Wales0 - 0Poland
Poland win 5-4 on penalties
The Match
Match Report
Wales' Euro 2024 dreams come to a heartbreaking end as Poland win their playoff final 5-4 on penalties following a goalless draw in 120 minutes.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Wales 4-1 Finland
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Poland 5-1 Estonia
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Poland had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Poland win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wales | Draw | Poland |
45.57% ( 0.74) | 26.57% ( -0.21) | 27.86% ( -0.53) |
Both teams to score 49.45% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.05% ( 0.5) | 54.95% ( -0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.77% ( 0.41) | 76.23% ( -0.41) |
Wales Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.95% ( 0.58) | 24.05% ( -0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.68% ( 0.82) | 58.32% ( -0.82) |
Poland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.11% ( -0.15) | 34.89% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.37% ( -0.16) | 71.63% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Wales 45.56%
Poland 27.86%
Draw 26.57%
Wales | Draw | Poland |
1-0 @ 11.95% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.56% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.57% | 0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.86% |
How you voted: Wales vs Poland
Wales
32.0%Draw
15.0%Poland
53.0%300
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-05-11 10:48:38
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 82 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 56 | 22 | 56 |
7 | Chelsea | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 70 | -14 | 49 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 48 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 47 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Fulham | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
15 | Everton | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 |
16 | Brentford | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 26 |
19 | Burnley | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 100 | -65 | 16 |
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