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England national football team
Friendlies 1
Oct 8, 2020 at 8pm UK
Wembley Stadium
Wales national football team

England
3 - 0
Wales

Calvert-Lewin (26'), Coady (53'), Ings (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Roberts (42'), Ampadu (57'), Levitt (61')

Preview: England vs. Wales - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's international friendly between England and Wales at Wembley, including team news and predicted lineups.

Old foes England and Wales face off in an international friendly at Wembley on Thursday evening, each looking to maintain their unbeaten runs.

The Three Lions have gone five matches without defeat, winning four of those and keeping a clean sheet in each, while Wales' streak without defeat spans eight games.


Match preview

Not for the first time when it comes to England duty, the talk ahead of this friendly match has been overshadowed by events off the pitch.

A month on from Phil Foden and Mason Greenwood being sent home for breaching coronavirus protocols, another trio of players have fallen foul of rules.

Ben Chilwell, Jadon Sancho and Tammy Abraham were videoed at a party attended by more than six people at the weekend and are all expected to sit out this match.

Gareth Southgate will be glad to have some football to discuss, although a far brighter performance will be required on the back of last month's stalemate in Denmark.

A block on the line in the dying stages denied Harry Kane in the best of the chances in a dreary deadlock, though it did at least extend England's unbeaten run without conceding.

It was the Three Lions' sixth goalless draw in 43 matches under Southgate - as many as Roy Hodgson played out in 56 games in charge.

England manager Gareth Southgate pictured on September 8, 2020© Reuters

Southgate will rightly point out, though, that his side won their previous four games by an aggregate scoreline of 18-0.

Wales' form has been even better on the results front, however, having last tasted defeat in June 2019.

Since that loss to Hungary, which appeared to have completely derailed their Euro 2020 bid, Ryan Giggs's men have won six and drawn two.

That includes four wins in a row without conceding, most recently seeing off Finland and Bulgaria by the same 1-0 scoreline last month in the UEFA Nations League.

Both sides have a double-header of Nations League fixtures to come over the next week and will undoubtedly prioritise those games.

However, this is a derby clash and, while fans will not be in attendance, neither manager will want their respective unbeaten runs to end at the hands of their neighbouring nation.

It was England supporters celebrating when the sides last met in a memorable Euro 2016 group clash four years ago, with a late Daniel Sturridge strike making it five wins in a row for the Three Lions in this fixture.

England form (all competitions): LWWWWD

Wales form (all competitions): DDWWWW


Team News

England's Raheem Sterling celebrates scoring against Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on September 5, 2020© Reuters

Greenwood and Foden have been left out of the squad after last month's antics, while Chilwell, Sancho and Abraham are unlikely to feature in this first of three games in six days.

Manchester City forward Raheem Sterling has also withdrawn because of injury, with Chelsea full-back Reece James a late addition to the squad on Monday.

Southgate is expected to use this friendly to experiment slightly and hand out debuts to the likes of Dean Henderson, Bukayo Saka, Harvey Barnes, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and James.

As for Giggs, he has to make do without Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey due to fitness and coronavirus concerns respectively.

Joe Allen is also still absent with a ruptured Achilles, while Tom Lockyer misses out with an ankle issue and Hal Robson-Kanu with a fractured arm.

Rhys Norrington-Davies and Brennan Johnson are in line to make their senior debuts, having been called up by Giggs for the first time.

England possible starting lineup:
D.Henderson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Mings, Saka; Rice, J.Henderson; Barnes, Grealish, Rashford; Calvert-Lewin

Wales possible starting lineup:
Hennessey; N.Williams, Mepham, Ampadu, Davies; Smith, Morrell; Brooks, J.Williams, James; Moore


SM words green background

We say: England 1-0 Wales

Wales have been in fantastic form over the past 18 months or so but, without his two best players, this will be a massive task for Giggs.

England have won five in a row against the Dragons since 1984 and we are expecting that run to go on for a little while longer.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 70.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Wales had a probability of 9.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.19%) and 3-0 (10.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.85%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that England would win this match.


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Jadon Sancho in action for England in September 2020
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