Wolfsburg take on Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday in a potentially pivotal clash in terms of both teams' aims of finishing inside the Champions League qualification positions.
The Wolves are five points ahead of BVB with only four games of the season remaining, with Eintracht Frankfurt also sandwiched between the two sides.
Match preview
© Reuters
After suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time this season, Wednesday's trip to Stuttgart represented a hugely significant fixture for Wolfsburg in terms of qualifying for next season's Champions League.
Failure to win would have meant that Dortmund would have had the opportunity to leapfrog Wolfsburg in the table by beating them on Saturday, but Oliver Glasner's side held their nerve with an impressive 3-1 victory.
Matters could have ensued very differently, though, had Stuttgart forward Sasa Kalajdzic placed the ball either side of Koen Casteels rather than straight at the goalkeeper having been played clean through on goal less than nine minutes into the match, with Xaver Schlager punishing his profligacy by striking from distance to break the deadlock four minutes later.
Wolfsburg were let off the hook once again when Philipp Forster missed from the penalty spot after John Brooks's handball, before Wout Weghorst converted Josip Brekalo's cross with a diving header to score his 20th goal of the season and double the visitors' lead heading into the half-time interval.
Yannick Gerhardt sealed victory with a curling effort after the break, with Stuttgart's frustrations summed up by Robert Massimo's strike hitting the post.
Gonzalo Castro's deflected effort in injury-time proved scant consolation for Pellegrino Matarazzo's side, with Glasner hoping for a more secure defensive performance against Dortmund on Saturday alongside retaining their ruthlessness in attack.
© Reuters
Indeed, with Wolfsburg conceding eight goals in their last three matches, Dortmund will be licking their lips after Edin Terzic's side produced a superb performance to dispatch Union Berlin 2-0 on Wednesday.
Marcus Ingvartsen almost opened the scoring for the visitors but saw his brilliant effort from distance smash off the bar, before Marco Reus dragged his shot wide from close range.
The 31-year-old subsequently earned his side a penalty after Andreas Luthe was adjudged to have taken the forward out, but the goalkeeper made amends by saving Erling Braut Haaland's penalty. However, Reus was first on the scene to scramble the ball home.
Marwin Hitz produced a superb save to tip Max Kruse's free-kick onto the post, with Raphael Guerreiro finally putting the game to bed by dinking the ball over the onrushing Luthe in the 88th minute after a scintillating counter-attack led by Haaland.
Dortmund certainly appear to have their mojo back having won three successive league games, but Terzic will be under no illusions that a win against Wolfsburg is realistically required for them to save their season with Champions League qualification via a top-four finish.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Wolfsburg remain without Renato Steffen due to ankle ligament damage, with the creative winger hoping to return for his side's next match against Union Berlin in two weeks' time.
Kevin Mbabu is also a doubt once again, this time due to a foot injury, with Ridle Baku likely to continue to deputise at right-back.
Glasner will have Otavio available again, though, after the left-back served his one-match suspension against Stuttgart.
Otavio is likely to replace Jerome Roussillon, with Maxence Lacroix also expected to return alongside Brooks in defence after receiving a rare rest in midweek.
Dortmund, meanwhile, have been dealt a severe blow after Mats Hummels received a suspension for picking up his fifth booking of the season against Union Berlin in midweek.
With Dan-Axel Zagadou out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury, Emre Can may be forced to drop back into defence, with Mahmoud Dahoud and Thomas Delaney potentially coming in to bolster the midfield alongside Jude Bellingham.
That may mean Giovanni Reyna and Thorgan Hazard both making way, with Jadon Sancho impressing from the bench upon his return from injury on Wednesday and likely to start.
Mateu Morey should displace Lukasz Piszczek at right-back after receiving a rest against Union Berlin, with Youssoufa Moukoko, Roman Burki and Marcel Schmelzer all ruled out of the trip.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Brekalo, Philipp, Gerhardt; Weghorst
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Morey, Akanji, Can, Guerreiro; Bellingham, Delaney, Dahoud; Sancho, Haaland, Reus
We say: Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
The absence of Hummels could prove a major blow for Dortmund, but we can envisage them edging an entertaining affair to keep their top-four hopes alive.
Terzic's side look to have rediscovered their rhythm in attack, with the return of Sancho only likely to improve that further.
Dortmund have more big-game experience than the Wolves, who have displayed more defensive vulnerabilities in recent weeks.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.67%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
