Only once has a Serie A relegation playoff been decided by a penalty shootout - in 1995, Genoa were demoted on spot-kicks - and in the event of a tie at the end of 90 minutes this Sunday, the game would go straight to penalties without extra time.
Neither team has been sharp enough in the final third this season, so after a low-scoring draw in Sassuolo it could ultimately come down to who holds their nerve from 12 yards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 0-1 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
