Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.42%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 20.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Lyon win it was 1-2 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
57.42% ( 0.02) | 22% ( -0.01) | 20.57% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 55.89% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.38% ( 0.02) | 42.62% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.98% ( 0.02) | 65.02% ( -0.02) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.39% ( 0.01) | 14.61% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.29% ( 0.03) | 42.7% ( -0.03) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.46% ( -0) | 34.54% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.74% | 71.26% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.34% 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.99% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.88% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 57.42% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.27% 0-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.99% | 1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.85% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.87% 0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.05% Total : 20.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
R | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |