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FA Cup
Leicester logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
King Power Stadium
Birmingham logo

Leicester
3 - 0
Birmingham

Vardy (47'), Akgun (72'), Praet (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Roberts (65'), Roberts (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Leicester City and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leicester City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Leicester 1-1 Ipswich
Monday, January 22 at 8pm in Championship

Birmingham City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Stoke 1-2 Birmingham
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leicester City 2-1 Birmingham City

 Potentially for the first time this season, the mood in the Birmingham camp may be brighter than their Premier League-bound hosts if recent results are anything to go by, and Blues gave Leicester a proper run for their money a few weeks ago. However, Maresca's troops give very little away at the King Power, and the Leicester ball should be in the pot for the fifth-round draw come full time, but Birmingham are sure to put up a strong fight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 13.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-2 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.

Result
Leicester CityDrawBirmingham City
68.3% (-0.691 -0.69) 18.25% (0.334 0.33) 13.45% (0.356 0.36)
Both teams to score 53.45% (-0.159 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.67% (-0.72 -0.72)38.33% (0.721 0.72)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.39% (-0.768 -0.77)60.61% (0.77 0.77)
Leicester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.76% (-0.364 -0.36)10.24% (0.364 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.42% (-0.83499999999999 -0.83)33.58% (0.83600000000001 0.84)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.55% (0.065000000000005 0.07)40.45% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.94% (0.058 0.06)77.06% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Leicester City 68.29%
    Birmingham City 13.45%
    Draw 18.25%
Leicester CityDrawBirmingham City
2-0 @ 10.75% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
1-0 @ 9.44% (0.176 0.18)
3-0 @ 8.17% (-0.104 -0.1)
3-1 @ 7.39% (-0.081 -0.08)
4-0 @ 4.65% (-0.134 -0.13)
4-1 @ 4.21% (-0.114 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.35% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-0 @ 2.12% (-0.095 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.92% (-0.083 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.91% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 4.65%
Total : 68.29%
1-1 @ 8.55% (0.174 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.41% (0.029 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.14% (0.141 0.14)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 18.25%
1-2 @ 3.87% (0.085 0.09)
0-1 @ 3.75% (0.134 0.13)
0-2 @ 1.7% (0.063 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.33% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.17% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 13.45%

How you voted: Leicester vs Birmingham

Leicester City
76.5%
Draw
9.4%
Birmingham City
14.1%
85
Head to Head
Dec 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 22
Birmingham
2-3
Leicester
James (14', 74')
Mavididi (10', 50'), Dewsbury-Hall (21')
Mavididi (10')
> Preview
Aug 26, 2020 1pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Birmingham
0-2
Leicester
Dewsbury-Hall (53'), Albrighton (71')
Mar 4, 2020 7.45pm
Fifth Round
Leicester
1-0
Birmingham
> Match Report
Aug 1, 2015 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Birmingham
2-3
Leicester
Cotterill (23'), Gray (24')
Huth (59'), Drinkwater (76'), Okazaki (83')
> Match Report
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Birmingham
1-2
Leicester
> Match Report
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